1. Map the Trends
Study long-term charts. Begin a chart analysis with monthly and weekly charts spanning several years. A larger scale map of the market provides more visibility and a better long-term perspective on a market. Once the long-term has been established, then consult daily and intra-day charts. A short-term market view alone can often be deceptive. Even if you only trade the very short term, you will do better if you're
trading in the same direction as the intermediate and longer term trends.
2. Spot the Trend and Go With It
Determine the trend and follow it. Market trends come in many sizes — long-term, intermediate-term and short-term. First, determine which one you're going to trade and use the appropriate chart. Make sure you trade in the direction of that trend. Buy dips if the trend is up. Sell rallies if the trend is down. If you're trading the intermediate trend, use daily and weekly charts. If you're day trading, use daily and intra-day charts. But in each case, let the longer range chart determine the trend, and then use the shorter term chart for timing.
3. Find the Low and High of It
Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old "high" becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies — the old "low" can become the new "high."
4. Know How Far to Backtrack
Measure percentage retracements. Market corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend in simple percentages. A fifty percent retracement of a prior trend is most common. A minimum retracement is usually one-third of the prior trend. The maximum retracement is usually two-thirds. Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62% are also worth watching. During a pullback in an uptrend, therefore, initial buy points are in the 33-38% retracement area.
5. Draw the Line
Draw trend lines. Trend lines are one of the simplest and most effective charting tools. All you need is a straight edge and two points on the chart. Up trend lines are drawn along two successive lows. Down trend lines are drawn along two successive peaks. Prices will often pull back to trend lines before resuming their trend. The breaking of trend lines usually signals a change in trend. A valid trend line should be touched at least three times. The longer a trend line has been in effect, and the more times it has been tested, the more important it becomes.
6. Follow that Average
Follow moving averages. Moving averages provide objective buy and sell signals. They tell you if existing trend is still in motion and help confirm a trend change. Moving averages do not tell you in advance, however, that a trend change is imminent. A combination chart of two moving averages is the most popular way of finding trading signals. Some popular futures combinations are 4- and 9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are given when the shorter average line crosses the longer. Price crossings above and below a 40-day moving average also provide good trading signals. Since moving average chart lines are trend-following indicators, they work best in a trending market.
7. Learn the Turns
Track oscillators. Oscillators help identify overbought and oversold markets. While moving averages offer confirmation of a market trend change, oscillators often help warn us in advance that a market has rallied or fallen too far and will soon turn. Two of the most popular are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastics. They both work on a scale of 0 to 100. With the RSI, readings over 70 are overbought while readings below 30 are oversold. The overbought and oversold values for Stochastics are 80 and 20. Most traders use 14-days or weeks for stochastics and either 9 or 14 days or weeks for RSI. Oscillator divergences often warn of market turns. These tools work best in a trading market range. Weekly signals can be used as filters on daily signals. Daily signals can be used as filters for intra-day charts.
8. Know the Warning Signs
Trade MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (developed by Gerald Appel) combines a moving average crossover system with the overbought/oversold elements of an oscillator. A buy signal occurs when the faster line crosses above the slower and both lines are below zero. A sell signal takes place when the faster line crosses below the slower from above the zero line. Weekly signals take precedence over daily signals. An MACD histogram plots the difference between the two lines and gives even earlier warnings of trend changes. It's called a "histogram" because vertical bars are used to show the difference between the two lines on the chart.
9. Trend or Not a Trend
Use ADX. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) line helps determine whether a market is in a trending or a trading phase. It measures the degree of trend or direction in the market. A rising ADX line suggests the presence of a strong trend. A falling ADX line suggests the presence of a trading market and the absence of a trend. A rising ADX line favors moving averages; a falling ADX favors oscillators. By plotting the direction of the ADX line, the trader is able to determine which trading style and which set of indicators are most suitable for the current market environment.
10. Know the Confirming Signs
Include volume and open interest. Volume and open interest are important confirming indicators in futures markets. Volume precedes price. It's important to ensure that heavier volume is taking place in the direction of the prevailing trend. In an uptrend, heavier volume should be seen on up days. Rising open interest confirms that new money is supporting the prevailing trend. Declining open interest is often a warning that the trend is near completion. A solid price uptrend should be accompanied by rising volume and rising open interest.
"11."
Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student and keep learning.
- John Murphy
lundi, août 27, 2007
mercredi, août 22, 2007
Pour s'initier au Forex : lire Kathy Lien "Day Trading the Currency Market"
http://www.bktraderfx.com/
Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies To Profit from Market Swings
Kathy Lien
ISBN: 978-0-471-71753-9
Hardcover
256 pages
January 2006
£45.00 / €60.90 Add to Cart
Preface.
Acknowledgments.
Chapter 1: Foreign Exchange—The Fastest-Growing Market of Our Time.
Effects of Currencies on Stocks and Bonds.
Comparing the FX Market with Futures and Equities.
Who Are the Players in the FX Market?
Chapter 2: Historical Events in the FX Market.
Bretton Woods: Anointing the Dollar as the World Currency (1944).
End of Bretton Woods: Free Market Capitalism Is Born (1971).
Plaza Accord—Devaluation of U.S. Dollar (1985).
George Soros—The Man Who Broke the Bank of England.
Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998).
Introduction of the Euro (1999).
Chapter 3: What Moves the Currency Market in the Long Term?
Fundamental Analysis.
Technical Analysis.
Currency Forecasting—What Bookworms and Economists Look At.
Chapter 4: What Moves the Currency Market in the Short Term?
Relative Importance of Data Changes over Time.
Gross Domestic Product—No Longer a Big Deal.
How Can You Use This to Your Benefit?
A Deeper Look into the FX Market.
Chapter 5: What Are the Best Times to Trade for Individual Currency Pairs?
Asian Session (Tokyo): 7 P.M.–4 A.M. EST.
U.S. Session (New York): 8 A.M.–5 P.M. EST.
European Session (London): 2 A.M.–12 P.M. EST.
U.S.–European Overlap: 8 A.M.–12 P.M. EST.
European–Asian Overlap: 2 A.M.–4 A.M. EST.
Chapter 6: What Are Currency Correlations and How Do Traders Use Them?
Positive/Negative Correlations: What They Mean and How to Use Them.
Important Fact about Correlations: They Change.
Calculating Correlations Yourself.
Chapter 7: Trade Parameters for Different Market Conditions.
Keeping a Trading Journal.
Have a Toolbox—Use What Works for the Current Market Environment.
Step One—Profile Trading Environment.
Step Two—Determine Trading Time Horizon.
Risk Management.
Psychological Outlook.
Chapter 8 Technical Trading Strategies.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis.
Fading the Double Zeros.
Waiting for the Real Deal.
Inside Day Breakout Play.
The Fader.
Filtering False Breakouts.
Channel Strategy.
Perfect Order.
Chapter 9: Fundamental Trading Strategies.
Picking the Strongest Pairing.
Leveraged Carry Trade.
Fundamental Trading Strategy: Staying on Top of Macroeconomic Events.
Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator.
Using Bond Spreads as a Leading Indicator for FX.
Fundamental Trading Strategy: Risk Reversals.
Using Option Volatilities to Time Market Movements.
Fundamental Trading Strategy: Intervention.
Chapter 10: Profiles and Unique Characteristics of Major Currency Pairs.
Currency Profile: U.S. Dollar (USD).
Currency Profile: Euro (EUR).
Currency Profile: British Pound (GBP).
Currency Profile: Swiss Franc (CHF).
Currency Profile: Japanese Yen (JPY).
Currency Profile: Australian Dollar (AUD).
Currency Profile: New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
Currency Profile: Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies To Profit from Market Swings
Kathy Lien
ISBN: 978-0-471-71753-9
Hardcover
256 pages
January 2006
£45.00 / €60.90 Add to Cart
Preface.
Acknowledgments.
Chapter 1: Foreign Exchange—The Fastest-Growing Market of Our Time.
Effects of Currencies on Stocks and Bonds.
Comparing the FX Market with Futures and Equities.
Who Are the Players in the FX Market?
Chapter 2: Historical Events in the FX Market.
Bretton Woods: Anointing the Dollar as the World Currency (1944).
End of Bretton Woods: Free Market Capitalism Is Born (1971).
Plaza Accord—Devaluation of U.S. Dollar (1985).
George Soros—The Man Who Broke the Bank of England.
Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998).
Introduction of the Euro (1999).
Chapter 3: What Moves the Currency Market in the Long Term?
Fundamental Analysis.
Technical Analysis.
Currency Forecasting—What Bookworms and Economists Look At.
Chapter 4: What Moves the Currency Market in the Short Term?
Relative Importance of Data Changes over Time.
Gross Domestic Product—No Longer a Big Deal.
How Can You Use This to Your Benefit?
A Deeper Look into the FX Market.
Chapter 5: What Are the Best Times to Trade for Individual Currency Pairs?
Asian Session (Tokyo): 7 P.M.–4 A.M. EST.
U.S. Session (New York): 8 A.M.–5 P.M. EST.
European Session (London): 2 A.M.–12 P.M. EST.
U.S.–European Overlap: 8 A.M.–12 P.M. EST.
European–Asian Overlap: 2 A.M.–4 A.M. EST.
Chapter 6: What Are Currency Correlations and How Do Traders Use Them?
Positive/Negative Correlations: What They Mean and How to Use Them.
Important Fact about Correlations: They Change.
Calculating Correlations Yourself.
Chapter 7: Trade Parameters for Different Market Conditions.
Keeping a Trading Journal.
Have a Toolbox—Use What Works for the Current Market Environment.
Step One—Profile Trading Environment.
Step Two—Determine Trading Time Horizon.
Risk Management.
Psychological Outlook.
Chapter 8 Technical Trading Strategies.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis.
Fading the Double Zeros.
Waiting for the Real Deal.
Inside Day Breakout Play.
The Fader.
Filtering False Breakouts.
Channel Strategy.
Perfect Order.
Chapter 9: Fundamental Trading Strategies.
Picking the Strongest Pairing.
Leveraged Carry Trade.
Fundamental Trading Strategy: Staying on Top of Macroeconomic Events.
Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator.
Using Bond Spreads as a Leading Indicator for FX.
Fundamental Trading Strategy: Risk Reversals.
Using Option Volatilities to Time Market Movements.
Fundamental Trading Strategy: Intervention.
Chapter 10: Profiles and Unique Characteristics of Major Currency Pairs.
Currency Profile: U.S. Dollar (USD).
Currency Profile: Euro (EUR).
Currency Profile: British Pound (GBP).
Currency Profile: Swiss Franc (CHF).
Currency Profile: Japanese Yen (JPY).
Currency Profile: Australian Dollar (AUD).
Currency Profile: New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
Currency Profile: Canadian Dollar (CAD).
mercredi, août 15, 2007
heures sur le forex
Lu sur un forum :
7 fois sur 10 sur l'EUR/USD, le haut ou le bas de la journee est atteint entre minuit et 5 heures du matin, heure de New-York
de toutes les bars horaires de la journee sur le forex, la bar des 3 heures (entre 2 AM et 3 AM heure de NY) est le haut ou le bas de la journee le plus souvent.
A tester...
7 fois sur 10 sur l'EUR/USD, le haut ou le bas de la journee est atteint entre minuit et 5 heures du matin, heure de New-York
de toutes les bars horaires de la journee sur le forex, la bar des 3 heures (entre 2 AM et 3 AM heure de NY) est le haut ou le bas de la journee le plus souvent.
A tester...
Système symétrique ou non symétrique
C'est-à-dire avec mêmes critères pour l'achat que la vente.
A part le Forex, les marchés ne sont pas symétriques à la baisse comme à la hausse : les marchés actions vont plus vite à la baisse.
A part le Forex, les marchés ne sont pas symétriques à la baisse comme à la hausse : les marchés actions vont plus vite à la baisse.
Quelques sites en vrac
Kiki27 : http://www.kiki27.fr.st
http://short-term-trading.over-blog.com/
(avec de très bons liens comme :)
http://www.addictfx.biz/
La file trading systématique de proat:
http://www.pro-at.com/forums-bourse/bourse-6-16222.html
où j'ai pêché un bon résumé des caractéristiques des différents systèmes de trading
Quels sont les marches qui trendent bien ?
Quels sont les marches qui trendent bien ?
Voici les 3 meilleurs, par ordre d'importance :
1-Les devises (de tres loin le meilleur marche pour ce type de systeme de trading), futures ou forex d'ailleurs, bien que je prefere le forex car il n'y a aucun slippage sur les stop/limits orders a cause de l'enorme liquidite de ce marche (1500 MILLIARDS de dollars par jour changent de main, PAR JOUR !).
2- Les T-bonds americains futures (Bons du Tresor US).
3- L'eurodollar futures (le taux d'interet, pas la devise).
Un trader discipline qui se limiterait juste a ces trois marches et qui utiliserait les moyennes mobiles comme methodologie de trading s'en sortirait a merveille, annee apres annee.
Un des pires marches ? Le soja !
JAMAIS les mobiles moyennes avec les index futures (e-mini S&P 500 futures ou autres), Ils utilisent L'INVERSE, c'est a dire qu'ils parient sur des reversals ou retournement de tendance.
C'EST LA SEULE MANIERE DE PROFITER SUR CE DEMON QU'EST LE S&P 500 FUTURES ET SUR SON COUSIN, LE NASDAQ100 FUTURES !
Je sais de quoi je parle, je me suis casse les dents et les reins a daytrader ces indices boursiers americains en essayant de suivre la tendance grace aux moyennes mobiles, il y'a belle lurette de cela. La aussi, comme le soja, c'est un des pires marches a trader avec les Moyennes Mobiles. (Gekko sur proat)
Voici les 3 meilleurs, par ordre d'importance :
1-Les devises (de tres loin le meilleur marche pour ce type de systeme de trading), futures ou forex d'ailleurs, bien que je prefere le forex car il n'y a aucun slippage sur les stop/limits orders a cause de l'enorme liquidite de ce marche (1500 MILLIARDS de dollars par jour changent de main, PAR JOUR !).
2- Les T-bonds americains futures (Bons du Tresor US).
3- L'eurodollar futures (le taux d'interet, pas la devise).
Un trader discipline qui se limiterait juste a ces trois marches et qui utiliserait les moyennes mobiles comme methodologie de trading s'en sortirait a merveille, annee apres annee.
Un des pires marches ? Le soja !
JAMAIS les mobiles moyennes avec les index futures (e-mini S&P 500 futures ou autres), Ils utilisent L'INVERSE, c'est a dire qu'ils parient sur des reversals ou retournement de tendance.
C'EST LA SEULE MANIERE DE PROFITER SUR CE DEMON QU'EST LE S&P 500 FUTURES ET SUR SON COUSIN, LE NASDAQ100 FUTURES !
Je sais de quoi je parle, je me suis casse les dents et les reins a daytrader ces indices boursiers americains en essayant de suivre la tendance grace aux moyennes mobiles, il y'a belle lurette de cela. La aussi, comme le soja, c'est un des pires marches a trader avec les Moyennes Mobiles. (Gekko sur proat)
Moyenne mobile et détection de tendance
Il est clair que chaque fois qu'une action, un contrat future ou une devise se met a "bouger" ("trender") a la hausse ou a la baisse, son prix doit IMPERATIVEMENT, par definition mathematique meme, etre superieur/inferieur a sa moyenne mobile (selon la direction du trend) IL NE PEUT PAS FAIRE AUTREMENT.
C'est ca qui fait toute la beaute, la force et la robustesse des systemes de trading qui se basent sur les moyennes mobiles. Vous pouvez etre sur et certain, pour les siecles et les siecles a venir, que chaque fois qu'on a un debut de trend potentiel sur le vehicule financier que vous tradez, les moyennes mobiles seront TOUJOURS la pour vous le signaler.
Donc je resume l'evidence mathematique :
IL EST IMPOSSIBLE (I-M-P-O-S-S-I-B-L-E !!!) POUR UNE ACTION, UN FUTURE OU UNE DEVISE DE SE METTRE A TRENDER SANS QUE SA MOYENNE MOBILE N'EN SOIT AVERTIE, C'EST UNE EVIDENCE MATHEMATIQUE QU'AUCUN MATHEMATICIEN AU MONDE NE METTRAIT EN DOUTE !
Reste maintenant plus qu'a "filtrer" les inevitables faux signaux (quand le marche est en mode non-trend) et le tour est joue ($$$)
C'est ca qui fait toute la beaute, la force et la robustesse des systemes de trading qui se basent sur les moyennes mobiles. Vous pouvez etre sur et certain, pour les siecles et les siecles a venir, que chaque fois qu'on a un debut de trend potentiel sur le vehicule financier que vous tradez, les moyennes mobiles seront TOUJOURS la pour vous le signaler.
Donc je resume l'evidence mathematique :
IL EST IMPOSSIBLE (I-M-P-O-S-S-I-B-L-E !!!) POUR UNE ACTION, UN FUTURE OU UNE DEVISE DE SE METTRE A TRENDER SANS QUE SA MOYENNE MOBILE N'EN SOIT AVERTIE, C'EST UNE EVIDENCE MATHEMATIQUE QU'AUCUN MATHEMATICIEN AU MONDE NE METTRAIT EN DOUTE !
Reste maintenant plus qu'a "filtrer" les inevitables faux signaux (quand le marche est en mode non-trend) et le tour est joue ($$$)
Street Smarts - Linda Raschke : la Turtle Soup
Je viens de commencer de lire Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies ou "Stratégies de trading à court terme" en français. Je trouve dommage que chaque système ne soit pas assorti d'un rapport de résultats. Je suis pas exemple dubitatif sur la Turtle Soup pour jouer les faux break-out à 20 périodes (20 jours en particulier), surtout en cas de forte tendance. Mais c'est intéressant de remarquer ces tests de nouveaux plus hauts ou plus bas à 20 périodes.
J'ai vu que Visual Chart avait incorporé ce système dans leur liste. Je vais aller le tester prochainement.
Mais je suis plutôt intéressé par des vrais systèmes intra-day.
Sites sur les systèmes de trading
Pour trader, il faut un système, au minimum : quand acheter, vendre, quel stop loss ?
Quels supports ? Quelle taille de position ?
Plusieurs sites passent en revue des systèmes. J'essaierai de faire une liste de sites les plus connus du moment.
Quels supports ? Quelle taille de position ?
Plusieurs sites passent en revue des systèmes. J'essaierai de faire une liste de sites les plus connus du moment.
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